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    W.W. CarlisleW.W. Carlisle ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's back.
    Bylo Band wrote: »
    Well I for one think if they get in the office this morning and see how long the Gauntlet has been down, a free copy of First Flight Archer for everyone to smooth things over wouldn't be a bad idea ;)

    Sounds good to me! I will take any crew I can get.

    There should be copy of 1 🌟 Weasely in everyone's in-game mail, by now. Make sure y'all got your copy.

    25 Honor, cool with me. 99,975 more will get you Vox.
    W.W. CarlislePlayed since January 20, 2019Captain Level- 99 (May 9, 2022)VIP 14Crew Quarters: 485/485Most recent/Lowest- Anbo-jyutsu Kyle Riker (1/5* Lvl 30) 5/29/23Immortalized x-866 5* x184, 4* x 490, 3* x91, 2* x62, and 1* x27Most recent Immortal - Tearful Janeway 4* 5/25/23Current non-event project- Improving my Science base skill. Retrieval Project- Mestral 1/5*
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    Been running 10 & 12 hr voyages since voyages daily since 5* exclusive launch. Always chhose the optimised solution for a dilema. Have run three long voyages since Jan 2023. Not seen Chuky or Adm Black yet

    Latest voyage, recalled prior to last dilemma by mistake (doh!), so 35 dilemmas solved
    - 26 SR, only 1 fusable, 9 Rare, 14 Uncommon
    - 5.1K chrons, 2.1K honor
    - 4 SR beholds (all frozen)
    - 3 schematic beholds (all useful)

    am6w006wxfln.png

    Bad RNG for no 5*'s

    Good RNG for the number of SR drops / found floating, Chrons & Honor
    -Excluding the 11 excpeted 4* specific dilemma's, 3 ship beholds and 2hr, 4hr, 6hr ones, 15 SR's for the remaining 18 dilemma's.
    - Avg range (for me) from 10 -12 hr voyage is 500 - 700 chrons, so lets say 600 Chrons. 7 voyages = 35 dilemmas = 4200 chrons, : 900 surplus
    - Avg Honnor is 400 + another 400-600 from airlock so lets say 500 honor avg, 7 voyages @ 900 = 2800, : 2400 surplus

    Swings and roundabouts - can't really comlain, but feel like I should ....
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    WaldoMagWaldoMag ✭✭✭✭✭
    EnderW wrote: »
    Got first place in my gauntlet today. Opened my loot boxes and saw a blank, gold box. I got excited. Then the box filled up…

    8wkyfakxqjor.png

    Suffice it to say, I was no longer excited. :/

    I still too, get excited by gold box. But now it is begold , so the gold box will either be an item or ration now.
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    DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    WaldoMag wrote: »
    EnderW wrote: »
    Got first place in my gauntlet today. Opened my loot boxes and saw a blank, gold box. I got excited. Then the box filled up…

    8wkyfakxqjor.png

    Suffice it to say, I was no longer excited. :/

    I still too, get excited by gold box. But now it is begold , so the gold box will either be an item or ration now.

    Yeah. We are so used to the non-BeGold drops, it still tricks us for a second.
    Why was Vicki not expelled from Greendale after she literally stabbed Pierce in the face with a pencil?!?!?
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    Mirror McCoyMirror McCoy ✭✭✭✭
    The cynic in me says they do it intentionally for the dopamine hit.
    I'm finally immune to it on Merit pulls after weeks if not months of this.
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    DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2023
    The cynic in me says they do it intentionally for the dopamine hit.
    I'm finally immune to it on Merit pulls after weeks if not months of this.
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    Yeah. Everything in every Merit Pull pops up the Gold border. It gets me, too.


    EDIT: A few minutes later......



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    Second 🌟 for Degra.
    Why was Vicki not expelled from Greendale after she literally stabbed Pierce in the face with a pencil?!?!?
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    Mind you, I otherwise totally agree with the OP. The RNG in Gauntlet seems to totally favour the underdog and/or the defender. If you challenge an opponent with the same crew yet you have the superior stats, chances are that they will score more crits than you will. However if you are weaker than they are, you will score more crits (at least sometimes). Also I find that in the final round, just before the gauntlet ends, the odds are even more against you. I will often have five losses straight, right at crunch time, despite superior stats. Here's just a couple of examples of what I'm talking about.

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    Bylo BandBylo Band ✭✭✭✭✭
    Mind you, I otherwise totally agree with the OP. The RNG in Gauntlet seems to totally favour the underdog and/or the defender. If you challenge an opponent with the same crew yet you have the superior stats, chances are that they will score more crits than you will. However if you are weaker than they are, you will score more crits (at least sometimes). Also I find that in the final round, just before the gauntlet ends, the odds are even more against you. I will often have five losses straight, right at crunch time, despite superior stats. Here's just a couple of examples of what I'm talking about.

    Speaking as the author of the OP I can assure you that is not what I was talking about. There are dozens of threads on this here forum about how Gauntlet can appear to be rigged (I have had this explained to me by both a statistician and a computer scientist) and IMO there is no bias in individual Gauntlet battles, what you are experiencing is a combination of confirmation bias and a bad RNG string (this may not be the correct term). There will be other times when you get a good RNG string and win a lot of fights in a row, even with fatigued crew, and you take less notice of such events as they are less emotionally powerful than a string of losses.

    The RNG I was ranting about in the OP is how more and more cards in this game are hiding behind an RNG wall that no amount of spending, skill, or effort can overcome. As mentioned in the OP, there are people who spend small fortunes on this game who send long voyages daily who still do not have a single copy of Vori Defender Chakotay or Admiral Black, and there is nothing those people can ever do to improve their odds. That and other recent examples are the frustrating new reality that the OP is about.
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    Well I don't have either VD Chakotay or Admiral Black because of the way voyages have been nerfed. You're lucky to get 1-2 purples for a 12 hour voyage these days, but I have screenshots of getting 6-10 in 8 hour missions a couple of years ago.
    I have never spent any dilithium in Gauntlet (but loads of merits) and only a couple of times to extend voyages when I've had a run of purples that I need. I still get random drops of Gauntlet crew but I don't expect to ever get either of the voyage rewards because I'm simply not prepared to spend dil or tokens to keep them going beyond their natural 10-12 hour runs. Voyages are the MOST boring, tedious and repetitive element of this "game". I agree, it's certainly frustrating.
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    DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bylo Band wrote: »
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    Incoming new Gauntlet Crew.....

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    Why was Vicki not expelled from Greendale after she literally stabbed Pierce in the face with a pencil?!?!?
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    Another full 72h voyage:
    - 32 purples (1 unowned (AGT La Force), 10 fusables, rest airlocks)
    - No Chak nor Black nor another random legendary
    - 5618 chrons
    - 2098 honor
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    IvanstoneIvanstone ✭✭✭✭✭
    The RNG in Gauntlet seems to totally favour the underdog and/or the defender.

    Now do a week of no refresh gauntlets to farm merits.

    I guarantee you’ll do plenty of “I can’t believe I won that mirror match with two levels of fatigue”. No one generally tries these matches when streak building but you’ll try this stuff when you you don’t care if you’ll win.

    During the recent endurance OE I was just burning out my crew to notch up the gauntlet count and I pulled a mirror match victory with 3 levels of fatigue. Not something that I would normally try.
    VIP 13 - 310 Crew Slots - 1055 Immortals
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    AviTrekAviTrek ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ivanstone wrote: »
    The RNG in Gauntlet seems to totally favour the underdog and/or the defender.

    Now do a week of no refresh gauntlets to farm merits.

    I guarantee you’ll do plenty of “I can’t believe I won that mirror match with two levels of fatigue”. No one generally tries these matches when streak building but you’ll try this stuff when you you don’t care if you’ll win.

    During the recent endurance OE I was just burning out my crew to notch up the gauntlet count and I pulled a mirror match victory with 3 levels of fatigue. Not something that I would normally try.

    This!!!

    No one tries when they're the underdog, so they only see upsets where they were the favorite. But the underdog upsets happen if you attempt them.
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    DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    AviTrek wrote: »
    Ivanstone wrote: »
    The RNG in Gauntlet seems to totally favour the underdog and/or the defender.

    Now do a week of no refresh gauntlets to farm merits.

    I guarantee you’ll do plenty of “I can’t believe I won that mirror match with two levels of fatigue”. No one generally tries these matches when streak building but you’ll try this stuff when you you don’t care if you’ll win.

    During the recent endurance OE I was just burning out my crew to notch up the gauntlet count and I pulled a mirror match victory with 3 levels of fatigue. Not something that I would normally try.

    This!!!

    No one tries when they're the underdog, so they only see upsets where they were the favorite. But the underdog upsets happen if you attempt them.

    Might try this out. I finished the Gauntlet part of the OE.
    Why was Vicki not expelled from Greendale after she literally stabbed Pierce in the face with a pencil?!?!?
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    IvanstoneIvanstone ✭✭✭✭✭
    AviTrek wrote: »
    Ivanstone wrote: »
    The RNG in Gauntlet seems to totally favour the underdog and/or the defender.

    Now do a week of no refresh gauntlets to farm merits.

    I guarantee you’ll do plenty of “I can’t believe I won that mirror match with two levels of fatigue”. No one generally tries these matches when streak building but you’ll try this stuff when you you don’t care if you’ll win.

    During the recent endurance OE I was just burning out my crew to notch up the gauntlet count and I pulled a mirror match victory with 3 levels of fatigue. Not something that I would normally try.

    This!!!

    No one tries when they're the underdog, so they only see upsets where they were the favorite. But the underdog upsets happen if you attempt them.

    Might try this out. I finished the Gauntlet part of the OE.

    I used to do this prior to the current gauntlet release schedule. I would finish the current crew and then merit farm till the next crew came out. Plenty of chances for don’t give a crap gauntlet rounds.

    Since the crew releases have increased in frequency I haven’t been able to complete crew like I used too. Sometimes I pull out a lopsided win when I try to sacrifice a crew to get a cheep refresh.
    VIP 13 - 310 Crew Slots - 1055 Immortals
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    Mirror CartmanMirror Cartman ✭✭✭✭✭
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    DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2023
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    The 65% Q Gauntlet? I have that one, as well.


    Erica slightly tired. One Fatigue.


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    EDIT: Trelane is also 65%. Interesting, considering the fan-theories.
    Why was Vicki not expelled from Greendale after she literally stabbed Pierce in the face with a pencil?!?!?
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    IvanstoneIvanstone ✭✭✭✭✭
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    There’s a 1% chance of that occurring. Now try and repeat that.
    VIP 13 - 310 Crew Slots - 1055 Immortals
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    DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ivanstone wrote: »
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    There’s a 1% chance of that occurring. Now try and repeat that.

    I know y'all throw out a lot of maths I do not understand. But, I am extremely doubtful that the opponent only wins 1% of the time.....

    Why was Vicki not expelled from Greendale after she literally stabbed Pierce in the face with a pencil?!?!?
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    IvanstoneIvanstone ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ivanstone wrote: »
    6hneewh9lbxf.jpg

    There’s a 1% chance of that occurring. Now try and repeat that.

    I know y'all throw out a lot of maths I do not understand. But, I am extremely doubtful that the opponent only wins 1% of the time.....

    There’s about a ~4% chance of a 65% crit crew getting no crits.
    There’s about a ~27% chance for the same crew to get all crits.
    Taken together there’s about a ~1% chance of this particular event to occur.

    The odds are just as likely you’ll have the same thing happen in your favour.
    VIP 13 - 310 Crew Slots - 1055 Immortals
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    DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ivanstone wrote: »
    Ivanstone wrote: »
    6hneewh9lbxf.jpg

    There’s a 1% chance of that occurring. Now try and repeat that.

    I know y'all throw out a lot of maths I do not understand. But, I am extremely doubtful that the opponent only wins 1% of the time.....

    There’s about a ~4% chance of a 65% crit crew getting no crits.
    There’s about a ~27% chance for the same crew to get all crits.
    Taken together there’s about a ~1% chance of this particular event to occur.

    The odds are just as likely you’ll have the same thing happen in your favour.

    My bad. I forgot every joke needs emojis to make sure people know it is a joke.....



    🤠😂🤠😂🤠 😁😁😁😁😁
    Why was Vicki not expelled from Greendale after she literally stabbed Pierce in the face with a pencil?!?!?
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    DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ivanstone wrote: »
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    There’s a 1% chance of that occurring. Now try and repeat that.

    There is also a 1% chance of a gold behold on a voyage dilemma, but I've never even has a purple behold. Yet I keep winning the 5% chance of being ripped off and cheated. They seem to like 1% chances.

    I've seen 65% {or less!} Crit chances hit all six. It does happen.
    Why was Vicki not expelled from Greendale after she literally stabbed Pierce in the face with a pencil?!?!?
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    WebberoniWebberoni ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2023
    After having good luck getting the newest voyage-exclusive and gauntlet crew, I have yet to have any sort of behold since they were added to voyages and gauntlet (aside from ship beholds during voyages).

    One question I have, the answer to which I may very well have missed in an announcement somewhere, is whether the 4* voyage-exclusive crew (ie: The Clown) continue to be guaranteed drops, or if there is a chance they could now be beholds?
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    Webberoni wrote: »
    After having good luck getting the newest voyage-exclusive and gauntlet crew, I have yet to have any sort of behold since they were added to voyages and gauntlet (aside from ship beholds during voyages).

    One question I have, the answer to which I may very well have missed in an announcement somewhere, is whether the 4* voyage-exclusive crew (ie: The Clown) continue to be guaranteed drops, or if there is a chance they could now be beholds?

    You get a behold but one of the options will be the guaranteed drop.
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    IvanstoneIvanstone ✭✭✭✭✭
    Webberoni wrote: »
    After having good luck getting the newest voyage-exclusive and gauntlet crew, I have yet to have any sort of behold since they were added to voyages and gauntlet (aside from ship beholds during voyages).

    One question I have, the answer to which I may very well have missed in an announcement somewhere, is whether the 4* voyage-exclusive crew (ie: The Clown) continue to be guaranteed drops, or if there is a chance they could now be beholds?

    You get a behold but one of the options will be the guaranteed drop.

    I usually pick the exclusive crew. Helps me keep mentally track of which dilemmas I’ve done.
    VIP 13 - 310 Crew Slots - 1055 Immortals
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    DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    Webberoni wrote: »
    After having good luck getting the newest voyage-exclusive and gauntlet crew, I have yet to have any sort of behold since they were added to voyages and gauntlet (aside from ship beholds during voyages).

    One question I have, the answer to which I may very well have missed in an announcement somewhere, is whether the 4* voyage-exclusive crew (ie: The Clown) continue to be guaranteed drops, or if there is a chance they could now be beholds?

    It seems like some 4 🌟 drops are Beholds, but others are straight drops. There was a list in the announcement of which Dilemmas have Beholds now?
    Why was Vicki not expelled from Greendale after she literally stabbed Pierce in the face with a pencil?!?!?
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