Do they understand what 95% chance to succeed actually means?
Ulrikk
✭✭
in The Bridge
I know it's status quo, but I've gone 4/4 exactly twice during this event and my average chance to succeed is roughly 95%, as in 1/20 to fail. My most recent batch of 4 shuttles had 2 failures at 95% and 98%, do they honestly think this is working as intended?
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This was laid out in the terms of use I’m sure, but you’ve made it more of a slogan we all should have paid more attention to...except those here that are paid to write glowing reviews...
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DB thinks 95% chance means about 25-50% lol. It’s sad, but true.
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See, I’d be totally okay with that. I recognize I’ve fallen on both sides of the line in the gauntlet, arena, etc.
But these shuttles are not as simple as failing one or two in the high 90s.
This is widespread, with multiple people reporting things like sending out 4 shuttles at 98-99% and three of the four coming back failures. And then having it happen again in the next round of shuttles.
If it were one person, or if it were one or two for each person complaining, I’d be right there with you, and possibly even pointing out perception bias.
Theoretically, it might be possible. But in practice, it’s highly implausible.
See, you have 24 months of proof that this isn't true.
Shuttles have always been broken. People have always complained about the shuttles. DB has always said there is no problem and has never fixed it. People are still throwing money at DB rewarding them for lying to them.
DB has learned that it pays to ignore the masses because the masses have no spine and don't follow through on their whining. DB gets rewarded for dirty behavior and has learned that's how you make money.
So nope, eventually, someone will not have to fix this.
The best indicator of future behavior is past behavior. What is their history of behavior?
The canned response from DB is a joke, since other players and their shuttles should have absolutely no impact on my shuttles, as if the posted success rate % is pooled across the entire player base.
That...that is not how independent probability works.
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Shut up Wesley.
I think I had two rounds where all four shuttles succeeded, but between one and three fails on all the others.
This event it has been much worse than it usually is.
That sounds exactly like my experience yesterday. I am pretty sure their RNG could use a serious check-up.
Personally, I'm failing more high-% shuttles than usual, but I'd normally just chalk that up to a run of bad luck. However there's something else that makes me suspicious:
Despite my high fail rate, I'm hovering around rank 1500 without using any speed boosts at all. This is better than I'd normally be doing even if I was succeeding more shuttles, and seems to imply that the community at large are failing more than usual. Particularly with this being a mega-event, (where most people should have a good number of bonus crew from the Discovery month we already ran a few months ago) everyone would usually tend toward higher success rates to begin with.
Certainly not hard data by any means, but suspicious nonetheless.
@Shan @Black Pebble We would love a reply to this question as it does seem like it is an issue with this current event. Even in my fleets Discord channel there has been a much higher talk of shuttle fails than usual and things just don't seem to be running correctly.
https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/1713/shuttle-mission-success-chances-during-events-post-your-data-here/p1
Do YOU understand what 95% success rate means? It means 5% failure rate. It means less than 100% success rate. It means RNG has to Shran someone and today that's you. Sorry mate. Probability just rolls like that.
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and it's me , every 3h it seems. I always , and i mean ALWAYS fail 1/3, sometimes two, all the time above 92%. Think ill just stop using boosts .... and take my chances with 88-90% channels
This is the first event, i am struggling to keep under 500 thanks to the constant fails....
Captain of the voyage vessels: Queen of Bashir, Landsknecht, and Sunspear, the first luxury starship cruiseliners.
Amenities include wifi, fully-functioning holodecks, a full-service bar, 3 party decks, a Trill spa, and a business centre.
Fun fact: The ships are propelled by bouncy castle technology.
I bought the $99 plus a couple x10 @650
I have a cornwall 3/5 @100, a saru @ 5/5 100, i have two sharon @ 4/4 100 and a thelin @4/4 100
Plus a mix of gold and purple ff/fe x2 event crew
Went from 44 rank to 1500rank in last two days, non stop using *3 boosts on all 4 shuttles after kickstart and two sets of four of the 4* 9 hrs for sleep time
Perecents have not drop below 90%, moslty 95-99%
Have yet to have a single group of four all win almost always seeing 3/4, 2/4, 1/4 win lost ratios,even had a one fail all four, only been able to finally hit 4k tonight
On top of that i got a issues with a vp not rewarding right
But ya sorry to those feel otherwise but RNG is soooooo busted it ant funny
So far i have less then 50% win rate running 90% or better after dropping a couple hundred bucks to do good
Imagine the smile on my face
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