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Do they understand what 95% chance to succeed actually means?

I know it's status quo, but I've gone 4/4 exactly twice during this event and my average chance to succeed is roughly 95%, as in 1/20 to fail. My most recent batch of 4 shuttles had 2 failures at 95% and 98%, do they honestly think this is working as intended?
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  • I feel you dude, I have not been able to keep above 3500 VP due to failing a lot of 85% missions. Never had RNG this bad before. I've been able to go between 4k and 3500 vp the past few events in this one I'm stuck mostly doing 2750 ones because once I crack 3500vp I start failing 3/4 missions.
  • DralixDralix ✭✭✭✭✭
    Since 2250, I've failed 3 out of 64 missions.
  • DavideBooksDavideBooks ✭✭✭✭✭
    I've failed a lot more than that. It seems that my 60% shuttles fair better than my 90% shuttles.
  • I believe that they believe it is. But not honestly. Intellectual dishonesty is powerful, tenacious, and difficult to prove.

    This was laid out in the terms of use I’m sure, but you’ve made it more of a slogan we all should have paid more attention to...except those here that are paid to write glowing reviews...
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  • I’ve had the same issue, but in clumps... 4/4, 4/4, then 1/4, 2/4, then 4/4, etc., with about the same average success percentage... only some people in my fleet are getting these fails... others report success rates similar to Dralix...
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  • DB says: What? I don’t know what you are talking about crazy man! You must know everything is going normally according to DB standards.

    DB thinks 95% chance means about 25-50% lol. It’s sad, but true.
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  • (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is a weird event, everyone seems to have great luck or terrible luck. I have only failed one shuttle the whole event and it was a nine hour one.
    Let’s fly!
  • I’ve failed about 25% of my shuttles and the average success rate for my shuttles at 4k is right around 95% so as usual about 20% off the mark in the wrong direction. This always has been and always will be DBs dirty little secret. It’s been going on for over 18 months. They are fully aware of it and there are a select few players data crunching shuttles to confront them with hard evidence. Although I’m sure the response they’ll get is “they are operating as intended” 😂 lmao
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  • Lady GaghgaghLady Gaghgagh ✭✭✭✭✭
    My shuttles have usually been 1 out of 4 shuttles fail or 2 out of 4 shuttles fail each set out and none of my shuttles have been below 80% this whole event, the majority of my shuttles have been around an average of 90% no boosts. So yeah the failure rate for this event is annoying, weird, and improportionate.
    Admiral of the Haus of GaghGagh, Starbase level 94, we are not accepting members at this time.
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  • Eventually someone will have to fix this. This is probably the biggest complaint in the game. They must know Trekkies are not going to overlook this. I have noticed in general Star Trek fans are smarter than average so we're gonna catch mistakes in basic statistics.
  • if you fail a 95% mission, you are part of the 5% that fell on the wrong side of the line, but the other 95% send you their condolences..if that makes you feel any better...🤣
  • if you fail a 95% mission, you are part of the 5% that fell on the wrong side of the line, but the other 95% send you their condolences..if that makes you feel any better...🤣

    That...that is not how independent probability works.
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  • [SSR]Trollhammeren[SSR]Trollhammeren ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2018
    Honestly I had more success with shuttles that were barley reaching 80% now failing one 1/4 or more like clock work with 90-98% . Fix this steaming pile of human excrement ( and stick the censoring where the sun don't shine . Kindly)
  • My favorite fail of my shuttles was when I was first starting and failed 3 1 minute shuttles in a row at 99%. Seems to me that whatever DB did in changes for just 6 shuttles per faction also affected the fail rate of the shuttles beyond the normal issue we have had for the last 2 years.
  • Yesterday I failed 13 of 40 shuttles, all 89% or higher, most 95%+.

    I think I had two rounds where all four shuttles succeeded, but between one and three fails on all the others.

    This event it has been much worse than it usually is.
  • Webberoni wrote: »
    I have been running waves of the 4 3-seat Augment missions at 4,000 points, with consistent success rates of 92%, 93%, 94% and 95% (with 3* boosts), and have rarely had all 4 shuttles come back successful. I have failed 2 shuttles several times, and even failed 3 shuttles a couple times (including my first wave at 4k, which bumped me back to 3500).

    The canned response from DB is a joke, since other players and their shuttles should have absolutely no impact on my shuttles, as if the posted success rate % is pooled across the entire player base.

    That sounds exactly like my experience yesterday. I am pretty sure their RNG could use a serious check-up.
  • DavideBooksDavideBooks ✭✭✭✭✭
    It also seems inconsistent. I have failed a lot of very high probability sets. In one I had 3 of 4 fail while all at over 90. Then a few sets later, I had one fail in the 80s while the rest (two of them under 60) passed. I think that overall I have a 3/4 success rate, but that is true regardless of the % probability.
  • MagisseMagisse ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2018
    Ordinarily I don't get excited about these threads, but DB, I think this time might be worth a closer look.

    Personally, I'm failing more high-% shuttles than usual, but I'd normally just chalk that up to a run of bad luck. However there's something else that makes me suspicious:

    Despite my high fail rate, I'm hovering around rank 1500 without using any speed boosts at all. This is better than I'd normally be doing even if I was succeeding more shuttles, and seems to imply that the community at large are failing more than usual. Particularly with this being a mega-event, (where most people should have a good number of bonus crew from the Discovery month we already ran a few months ago) everyone would usually tend toward higher success rates to begin with.

    Certainly not hard data by any means, but suspicious nonetheless.
  • Magisse wrote: »
    Ordinarily I don't get excited about these threads, but DB, I think this time might be worth a closer look.

    Personally, I'm failing more high-% shuttles than usual, but I'd normally just chalk that up to a run of bad luck. However there's something else that makes me suspicious:

    Despite my high fail rate, I'm hovering around rank 1500 without using any speed boosts at all. This is better than I'd normally be doing even if I was succeeding more shuttles, and seems to imply that the community at large are failing more than usual. Particularly with this being a mega-event, (where most people should have a good number of bonus crew from the Discovery month we already ran a few months ago) everyone would usually tend toward higher success rates to begin with.

    Certainly not hard data by any means, but suspicious nonetheless.

    @Shan @Black Pebble We would love a reply to this question as it does seem like it is an issue with this current event. Even in my fleets Discord channel there has been a much higher talk of shuttle fails than usual and things just don't seem to be running correctly.
  • This Sisko1This Sisko1 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just keep adding the data. Event by event if needed. Once everyone is on the same page we can start to think about how to approach it as a group. Complaining since the formula change in the AND missions hasn't changed anything so far.

    https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/1713/shuttle-mission-success-chances-during-events-post-your-data-here/p1
  • I have had someone have 100% and still failed, I noticed since then I can not ever get 100% any more, I have also had fails at 99% a few times, which is stupid
  • Ulrikk wrote: »
    I know it's status quo, but I've gone 4/4 exactly twice during this event and my average chance to succeed is roughly 95%, as in 1/20 to fail. My most recent batch of 4 shuttles had 2 failures at 95% and 98%, do they honestly think this is working as intended?

    Do YOU understand what 95% success rate means? It means 5% failure rate. It means less than 100% success rate. It means RNG has to Shran someone and today that's you. Sorry mate. Probability just rolls like that.
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  • [SSR]Trollhammeren[SSR]Trollhammeren ✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2018
    Ulrikk wrote: »
    I know it's status quo, but I've gone 4/4 exactly twice during this event and my average chance to succeed is roughly 95%, as in 1/20 to fail. My most recent batch of 4 shuttles had 2 failures at 95% and 98%, do they honestly think this is working as intended?

    Do YOU understand what 95% success rate means? It means 5% failure rate. It means less than 100% success rate. It means RNG has to Shran someone and today that's you. Sorry mate. Probability just rolls like that.

    and it's me , every 3h it seems. I always , and i mean ALWAYS fail 1/3, sometimes two, all the time above 92%. Think ill just stop using boosts .... and take my chances with 88-90% channels :angry:
    This is the first event, i am struggling to keep under 500 thanks to the constant fails....
  • Lady GaghgaghLady Gaghgagh ✭✭✭✭✭
    I am logging my shuttles for the rest of this event. Let's see what we get.
    Admiral of the Haus of GaghGagh, Starbase level 94, we are not accepting members at this time.
    Captain of the voyage vessels: Queen of Bashir, Landsknecht, and Sunspear, the first luxury starship cruiseliners.
    Amenities include wifi, fully-functioning holodecks, a full-service bar, 3 party decks, a Trill spa, and a business centre.
    Fun fact: The ships are propelled by bouncy castle technology.
  • Ok heres my 2cents

    I bought the $99 plus a couple x10 @650
    I have a cornwall 3/5 @100, a saru @ 5/5 100, i have two sharon @ 4/4 100 and a thelin @4/4 100

    Plus a mix of gold and purple ff/fe x2 event crew

    Went from 44 rank to 1500rank in last two days, non stop using *3 boosts on all 4 shuttles after kickstart and two sets of four of the 4* 9 hrs for sleep time

    Perecents have not drop below 90%, moslty 95-99%
    Have yet to have a single group of four all win almost always seeing 3/4, 2/4, 1/4 win lost ratios,even had a one fail all four, only been able to finally hit 4k tonight

    On top of that i got a issues with a vp not rewarding right
    But ya sorry to those feel otherwise but RNG is soooooo busted it ant funny

    So far i have less then 50% win rate running 90% or better after dropping a couple hundred bucks to do good

    Imagine the smile on my face
  • SSR BarkleySSR Barkley ✭✭✭✭✭
    only failed 4 shuttles the entire event, out of around 80 shuttles total thus far.
    /SSR/ Barkley - semi retired
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