This event is the first in I don't know how long I've been dropped back to, and stuck at, 3500 VP. Granted the only crew I have providing bonuses are an immortalised Shran and Tarah and I'm not playing for rank but I've got a very deep immortalised legendary roster too. And we're at least getting a lot of easy (on paper) three seaters.
I've had an exceedingly high fail rate in this event. All shuttles are at 91+% and I've only gotten a 4/4 success rate two times in the past 48hrs. I'm running all four shuttles with 3* timeboosts every 90 mins. Usually, I'd be ranking top 30 right now but haven't managed to break the top 100 yet.
In any other faction event I'm running shuttles in the same manner with percentages in the 90's and I would rarely get a fail on a shuttle... once in a blue moon a 3/4 success rate.
I don't know if DB enacts some kind of 'mega event nerf' for faction events where a large portion of the player base has lots of event crew so they've got to knock everyone down a peg... but that's just my tinfoil hat conspiracy.
Im also seeing far higher than should be statistically realistic.
My theory is its more about how the client is showing the probabilities than the random number generator server-side.
I'd like to experiment with closing and re-opening the client before each mission to see if that helps, but frankly i cant be bothered
I can see that happening when there is vertical movement (in either direction) in the points but this far into the event everyone -should- be stable by now, there shouldn't be a lot of change in point values in a mission by mission case so what's displayed should be correct.
(Vs the opening day when every new set is escalating us, so we know it should be harder then is displayed)
I think if they are going to keep this kind of RnG where the percentage displayed is a fairytale, they need to stop the decending failure scale or extend it so it takes a bit longer before it does the things it is now.
If they did put a stop to the decending scale they could add a feature after a few fails
(To many Temporal annomolys ? Would you like alternate course Captain ?) So players who genuinely don't have the crew power to do 4000vp shuttles constantly don't difficulty out of an event.
But.. maybe that would just open up a new set of problems . I donno.
I'd like to experiment with closing and re-opening the client before each mission to see if that helps, but frankly i cant be bothered
In past events I've recorded a creward, boost, and success percent for a mission, but not sent that mission until a later round, after some successes/failures came in. The displayed success changed.
Another theory is that AND slots are overstating the success rate when only one skill is matched.
This event is the first in I don't know how long I've been dropped back to, and stuck at, 3500 VP. Granted the only crew I have providing bonuses are an immortalised Shran and Tarah
It's well publicized that some people airlock all DSC crew on sight. I'd be curious how many people experiencing this issue have limited bonus crew. Maybe the displayed success is being over stated for non bonus crew.
It's funny how often this discussion is restarted, so there really has to be something on it. I've had several 2/4's with 95% success rate shuttles again this week, just like the last week. This is no longer a surprise for me, it's the new normal. Actually, if I see a shuttle is not making 90%, I don't even bother putting a boost on it anymore because I know it's gunna fail anyway (be it 83% or 88% doesn't make a difference anymore).
"Everything about the Jem'Hadar is lethal!" - Eris (ST-DS9 Episode 2x26 "The Jem'Hadar")
DB will never admit the issue. How do they even begin to come up with compensation for 2 years of busted code? And that assumes it's a mistake. If they intentionally broke something that would be fraud and probably get them shut down.
I know it's status quo, but I've gone 4/4 exactly twice during this event and my average chance to succeed is roughly 95%, as in 1/20 to fail. My most recent batch of 4 shuttles had 2 failures at 95% and 98%, do they honestly think this is working as intended?
Do YOU understand what 95% success rate means? It means 5% failure rate. It means less than 100% success rate. It means RNG has to Shran someone and today that's you. Sorry mate. Probability just rolls like that.
Please don't talk to me like I'm 5. I understand probability, my issue is with the fact that a 5% failure rate is happening during over 90% of my shuttle runs. This isn't an isolated incident either, most of the people in my fleet are failing significantly higher than the advertised rate. If 5% of us are failing these missions than why does it seem that roughly 50% of my fleet has the issue.
First step is to stop hiding the "roll" for success. Show us the money, so to speak.
It does seem odd that I've only had 3 or 4 runs with 4 successes despite running 3 character shuttles, 3* (or better) boosts, with success rates between 80 and 90%.
It feels like the rate of the "lots of bonus crew" is about the same as the "few bonus crew" shuttle events. I'd have one or two shuttles with 75-80% success, and a couple with 55-70%. I expect a failure per run in those events, but even then I'd get a few real lucky runs where all 4 were successes.
I bought the $99 plus a couple x10 @650
I have a cornwall 3/5 @100, a saru @ 5/5 100, i have two sharon @ 4/4 100 and a thelin @4/4 100
Plus a mix of gold and purple ff/fe x2 event crew
Went from 44 rank to 1500rank in last two days, non stop using *3 boosts on all 4 shuttles after kickstart and two sets of four of the 4* 9 hrs for sleep time
Perecents have not drop below 90%, moslty 95-99%
Have yet to have a single group of four all win almost always seeing 3/4, 2/4, 1/4 win lost ratios,even had a one fail all four, only been able to finally hit 4k tonight
On top of that i got a issues with a vp not rewarding right
But ya sorry to those feel otherwise but RNG is soooooo busted it ant funny
So far i have less then 50% win rate running 90% or better after dropping a couple hundred bucks to do good
Imagine the smile on my face
Shuttles keep crashing and burning...
Getting so ANGEREY, can’t control myself... UUUURRRRGGGGGHHH!!!!!
I know it's status quo, but I've gone 4/4 exactly twice during this event and my average chance to succeed is roughly 95%, as in 1/20 to fail. My most recent batch of 4 shuttles had 2 failures at 95% and 98%, do they honestly think this is working as intended?
Do YOU understand what 95% success rate means? It means 5% failure rate. It means less than 100% success rate. It means RNG has to Shran someone and today that's you. Sorry mate. Probability just rolls like that.
Are you the guy that assumes if you got a 5% success chance DB would return your shuttle successful? Awesome world you live in mate...
First step is to stop hiding the "roll" for success. Show us the money, so to speak.
It does seem odd that I've only had 3 or 4 runs with 4 successes despite running 3 character shuttles, 3* (or better) boosts, with success rates between 80 and 90%.
It feels like the rate of the "lots of bonus crew" is about the same as the "few bonus crew" shuttle events. I'd have one or two shuttles with 75-80% success, and a couple with 55-70%. I expect a failure per run in those events, but even then I'd get a few real lucky runs where all 4 were successes.
It just feels off.
Meh, I thought about this. All DB will do is show you rolling a 4 (or 96, depending which way they point the scale) each time. It doesn't fix the problem which DB will never own up to.
This is basically musketeers La Forge, but on a much grander scale. And DB will never admit to it.
Are you the guy that assumes if you got a 5% success chance DB would return your shuttle successful? Awesome world you live in mate...
you cant have a shuttle with 5% chance, it starts at 15%... or was it 14. and yes those succeed sometimes (at least normal shuttles do, havent tried event ones lol)
Captain Lvl 99; Vip0; 552 Unique Immortals; Fleet: Omega Molecules; Base Lvl 134 (MAX); Playing Since March 2016.
Are you the guy that assumes if you got a 5% success chance DB would return your shuttle successful? Awesome world you live in mate...
you cant have a shuttle with 5% chance, it starts at 15%... or was it 14. and yes those succeed sometimes (at least normal shuttles do, havent tried event ones lol)
Can confirm for non-Event shuttles. I've been purposely failing shuttles across multiple factions for a couple of months now. A stupid number of "0% success" shuttles succeed.
In an interesting turn of events, my event shuttle DBNG has been oddly good the past few Faction events (though non-competitive since I can't send shuttles all day for two of four days). 🤔
I've heard DB have a 'whale nerf' that means 90%+ success rate on higher value missions means you're more than 1/10 chance of failing. Not sure if this is true (it could just be paranoia brought about by bad luck), but I've found a better hit ratio when getting 80-85% success rates on anything about 2250 shuttles. Anybody else corroborate this or am I just full of 5h1t ?
There's a couple of things going on here. One is, if you are dropping in rank it means that someone else is gaining. It's maddening but it always happens to me on the last day. People are obviously starting to use time boosts or dil to speed things up. That's got literally nothing to do with the issue at hand. If shuttle percentage issues are happening to you, it's happening to everyone.
The second thing, therefore, is (and its happening to everyone, remember) there might be a display issue with percentages. It comes up often enough that it's either a general belief or its real. If it's only happening to you in this event or just a few, that's a statistical thing and clearly not permanent. If it happens all the time I'd start writing things down. Only by producing evidence can we make a case to DB.
This event is unusual. We have had a different startup. This may have impacted some people more than others. Regardless, players are nervous, they are ranking differently, their points aren't as high. Perhaps that variability is causing people to react differently, play differently. Use dil where they haven't before. Use time boosts where they haven't before. That could well affect ranking.
The only thing you can do about percentages is to write it down. There's a thread in engineering that someone linked to earlier. Check it out, and write things down. It's the only way to sort it out.
This one has failed a few times. I don't care since I can easily get above 1000 and these events don't take alot of time.
what the client % shows and what they calculate back at the server are two different #'s. The client % is over exaggerated, depending on 2-3 scenarios.
This one has failed a few times. I don't care since I can easily get above 1000 and these events don't take alot of time.
what the client % shows and what they calculate back at the server are two different #'s. The client % is over exaggerated, depending on 2-3 scenarios.
This one has failed a few times. I don't care since I can easily get above 1000 and these events don't take alot of time.
what the client % shows and what they calculate back at the server are two different #'s. The client % is over exaggerated, depending on 2-3 scenarios.
Which 3 scenarios are those?
If the focus of these threads were less focused on "if" things were broken and more on "how" it might be a lot more clear. The only reaction this community seems to know is "omg pitchforks".
My shuttles have usually been 1 out of 4 shuttles fail or 2 out of 4 shuttles fail each set out and none of my shuttles have been below 80% this whole event, the majority of my shuttles have been around an average of 90% no boosts. So yeah the failure rate for this event is annoying, weird, and improportionate.
This one has failed a few times. I don't care since I can easily get above 1000 and these events don't take alot of time.
what the client % shows and what they calculate back at the server are two different #'s. The client % is over exaggerated, depending on 2-3 scenarios.
Which 3 scenarios are those?
If the focus of these threads were less focused on "if" things were broken and more on "how" it might be a lot more clear. The only reaction this community seems to know is "omg pitchforks".
This is not true... I never grab my pitchfork before lighting my torch (the tiki tiki kind... not the British flashlight kind... oh wrong thread... NM)...
DB will never admit the issue. How do they even begin to come up with compensation for 2 years of busted code? And that assumes it's a mistake. If they intentionally broke something that would be fraud and probably get them shut down.
It would certainly help if DB explained how shuttles worked. Like, does the AND give a percentage of 75/25 primary stat/secondary stat, and is the first skill always the primary skill or does it depend on which is the crew's highest, and so on.
Yesterday I was getting confused because the display was recommending lvl 20 shran 3/4 over a fully equipped 1/5 with a skill 7 times higher, yet when placed in the slot was only giving 17% over the legendary's 26%. Simple display issues might be causing shuttles at over 90% to be failing at 75% rates. I generally take 10% off displayed percentage and am pleased when I get a success rate close to this. It could be up to 16% because that is the minimum shown when a crew is equipped to that slot.
From what I have seen, the display is different from actual. It goes to all the bonus issues. Individual characters may not calculate right, the display rounds up based on the the number of skills, bonus, slots, and skill boosts. This is the post when the current formula was put into effect.
where a = skill with higher value, b = skill with lower value
and the order of the skill does not matter. Meaning, if it's SEC and SCI, and your crew is 500 SEC 800 SCI, it's still (800 + (0.25 * 500)) regardless if it's SEC and SCI or SCI and SEC.
where a = skill with higher value, b = skill with lower value
and the order of the skill does not matter. Meaning, if it's SEC and SCI, and your crew is 500 SEC 800 SCI, it's still (800 + (0.25 * 500)) regardless if it's SEC and SCI or SCI and SEC.
Yes, this is how the displayed success formula works. The question is: is this right? Is it (perhaps) subtly different? Clearly, different people are having different "luck". Those who feel like they are failing significantly more often ought to post how they are populating thosr shuttles (specifically, which crews in which slots for which missions).
Everyone saying, "it would be nice if DB would..." just stop. They have simply shown that they won't. Lamenting this fact is pretty useless. The best way to get them to fix things is to provide an alternative model that reflects reality more accurately than the "expected" results they display.
every 3h it seems. I always , and i mean ALWAYS fail 1/3, sometimes two, all the time above 92%. Think ill just stop using boosts .... and take my chances with 88-90% channels
This is the first event, i am struggling to keep under 500 thanks to the constant fails....
only failed 4 shuttles the entire event, out of around 80 shuttles total thus far.
For everyone on the fail side of the bellcurve there's one on the success side. As much as you might care about your individual results RNGesus does not care about you. This is simply your event to get squashed. It's a harsh temporal vortex out there.
Comments
My theory is its more about how the client is showing the probabilities than the random number generator server-side.
I'd like to experiment with closing and re-opening the client before each mission to see if that helps, but frankly i cant be bothered
In any other faction event I'm running shuttles in the same manner with percentages in the 90's and I would rarely get a fail on a shuttle... once in a blue moon a 3/4 success rate.
I don't know if DB enacts some kind of 'mega event nerf' for faction events where a large portion of the player base has lots of event crew so they've got to knock everyone down a peg... but that's just my tinfoil hat conspiracy.
I can see that happening when there is vertical movement (in either direction) in the points but this far into the event everyone -should- be stable by now, there shouldn't be a lot of change in point values in a mission by mission case so what's displayed should be correct.
(Vs the opening day when every new set is escalating us, so we know it should be harder then is displayed)
I think if they are going to keep this kind of RnG where the percentage displayed is a fairytale, they need to stop the decending failure scale or extend it so it takes a bit longer before it does the things it is now.
If they did put a stop to the decending scale they could add a feature after a few fails
(To many Temporal annomolys ? Would you like alternate course Captain ?) So players who genuinely don't have the crew power to do 4000vp shuttles constantly don't difficulty out of an event.
But.. maybe that would just open up a new set of problems . I donno.
This is my theory as well, and there may be multiple triggers.
In past events I've recorded a creward, boost, and success percent for a mission, but not sent that mission until a later round, after some successes/failures came in. The displayed success changed.
Another theory is that AND slots are overstating the success rate when only one skill is matched.
It's well publicized that some people airlock all DSC crew on sight. I'd be curious how many people experiencing this issue have limited bonus crew. Maybe the displayed success is being over stated for non bonus crew.
Please don't talk to me like I'm 5. I understand probability, my issue is with the fact that a 5% failure rate is happening during over 90% of my shuttle runs. This isn't an isolated incident either, most of the people in my fleet are failing significantly higher than the advertised rate. If 5% of us are failing these missions than why does it seem that roughly 50% of my fleet has the issue.
It does seem odd that I've only had 3 or 4 runs with 4 successes despite running 3 character shuttles, 3* (or better) boosts, with success rates between 80 and 90%.
It feels like the rate of the "lots of bonus crew" is about the same as the "few bonus crew" shuttle events. I'd have one or two shuttles with 75-80% success, and a couple with 55-70%. I expect a failure per run in those events, but even then I'd get a few real lucky runs where all 4 were successes.
It just feels off.
Shuttles keep crashing and burning...
Getting so ANGEREY, can’t control myself... UUUURRRRGGGGGHHH!!!!!
HULK SMASH puny Bannar...
Sorry... it just doesn’t get old...
Are you the guy that assumes if you got a 5% success chance DB would return your shuttle successful? Awesome world you live in mate...
Meh, I thought about this. All DB will do is show you rolling a 4 (or 96, depending which way they point the scale) each time. It doesn't fix the problem which DB will never own up to.
This is basically musketeers La Forge, but on a much grander scale. And DB will never admit to it.
you cant have a shuttle with 5% chance, it starts at 15%... or was it 14.
Can confirm for non-Event shuttles. I've been purposely failing shuttles across multiple factions for a couple of months now. A stupid number of "0% success" shuttles succeed.
In an interesting turn of events, my event shuttle DBNG has been oddly good the past few Faction events (though non-competitive since I can't send shuttles all day for two of four days). 🤔
The second thing, therefore, is (and its happening to everyone, remember) there might be a display issue with percentages. It comes up often enough that it's either a general belief or its real. If it's only happening to you in this event or just a few, that's a statistical thing and clearly not permanent. If it happens all the time I'd start writing things down. Only by producing evidence can we make a case to DB.
This event is unusual. We have had a different startup. This may have impacted some people more than others. Regardless, players are nervous, they are ranking differently, their points aren't as high. Perhaps that variability is causing people to react differently, play differently. Use dil where they haven't before. Use time boosts where they haven't before. That could well affect ranking.
The only thing you can do about percentages is to write it down. There's a thread in engineering that someone linked to earlier. Check it out, and write things down. It's the only way to sort it out.
Check out our website to find out more:
https://wiki.tenforwardloungers.com/
what the client % shows and what they calculate back at the server are two different #'s. The client % is over exaggerated, depending on 2-3 scenarios.
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Which 3 scenarios are those?
Check out our website to find out more:
https://wiki.tenforwardloungers.com/
If the focus of these threads were less focused on "if" things were broken and more on "how" it might be a lot more clear. The only reaction this community seems to know is "omg pitchforks".
I've had several shuttles fail at 88 to 94 %
This is exactly how it's been for me.
This is not true... I never grab my pitchfork before lighting my torch (the tiki tiki kind... not the British flashlight kind... oh wrong thread... NM)...
They could send everyone Mirror Picard 😝
Yesterday I was getting confused because the display was recommending lvl 20 shran 3/4 over a fully equipped 1/5 with a skill 7 times higher, yet when placed in the slot was only giving 17% over the legendary's 26%. Simple display issues might be causing shuttles at over 90% to be failing at 75% rates. I generally take 10% off displayed percentage and am pleased when I get a success rate close to this. It could be up to 16% because that is the minimum shown when a crew is equipped to that slot.
Check out our website to find out more:
https://wiki.tenforwardloungers.com/
https://forums.disruptorbeam.com/stt/viewthread/63133/
( (a + (0.25 * b) ) + boost )* bonus
where a = skill with higher value, b = skill with lower value
and the order of the skill does not matter. Meaning, if it's SEC and SCI, and your crew is 500 SEC 800 SCI, it's still (800 + (0.25 * 500)) regardless if it's SEC and SCI or SCI and SEC.
Yes, this is how the displayed success formula works. The question is: is this right? Is it (perhaps) subtly different? Clearly, different people are having different "luck". Those who feel like they are failing significantly more often ought to post how they are populating thosr shuttles (specifically, which crews in which slots for which missions).
Everyone saying, "it would be nice if DB would..." just stop. They have simply shown that they won't. Lamenting this fact is pretty useless. The best way to get them to fix things is to provide an alternative model that reflects reality more accurately than the "expected" results they display.
For everyone on the fail side of the bellcurve there's one on the success side. As much as you might care about your individual results RNGesus does not care about you. This is simply your event to get squashed. It's a harsh temporal vortex out there.
Check out our website to find out more:
http://tenforwardloungers.freecluster.eu