I bought the $99 plus a couple x10 @650
I have a cornwall 3/5 @100, a saru @ 5/5 100, i have two sharon @ 4/4 100 and a thelin @4/4 100
Plus a mix of gold and purple ff/fe x2 event crew
Went from 44 rank to 1500rank in last two days, non stop using *3 boosts on all 4 shuttles after kickstart and two sets of four of the 4* 9 hrs for sleep time
Perecents have not drop below 90%, moslty 95-99%
Have yet to have a single group of four all win almost always seeing 3/4, 2/4, 1/4 win lost ratios,even had a one fail all four, only been able to finally hit 4k tonight
On top of that i got a issues with a vp not rewarding right
But ya sorry to those feel otherwise but RNG is soooooo busted it ant funny
So far i have less then 50% win rate running 90% or better after dropping a couple hundred bucks to do good
Imagine the smile on my face
Shuttles keep crashing and burning...
Getting so ANGEREY, can’t control myself... UUUURRRRGGGGGHHH!!!!!
HULK SMASH puny Bannar...
Sorry... it just doesn’t get old...
It really doesnt still laugh ever time i see it lol
This one has failed a few times. I don't care since I can easily get above 1000 and these events don't take alot of time.
what the client % shows and what they calculate back at the server are two different #'s. The client % is over exaggerated, depending on 2-3 scenarios.
Which 3 scenarios are those?
If the focus of these threads were less focused on "if" things were broken and more on "how" it might be a lot more clear. The only reaction this community seems to know is "omg pitchforks".
(Mbannar goes to the shed for his whetstone and pickfork)
Pitchforks Creed:
This is my pitchfork. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
My pitchfork is my best friend. It is my life. I must master it as much as i must master my life.
Without me, my pitchfork is useless. Without my pitchfork, i am useless, i must stab my pitch fork true. I must stab straigther then my enemy who is trying to kill my shuttles. I must stab them before they stab me. (Edit part out here lol)
I will keep my pitch fork clean and ready, even as i am clean and ready. We will become part of each other.
Before god, I swear this creed. My pitchfork and myself are the defenders of my forum
We are the masters of our enemy. We are the saviors of my life
So be it, until there is no enemy, but peace. Amen
(Had to leave a section out couldnt get to work right lol)
The biggest bit for me is I am running 3x at over 90% and 1 at about 65-75%. I have failed 4 shuttles in the last 5 runs (cant really remember beyond that) 3 have been the 90+ shuttles only 1 of the 75's (that obviously isnt too far off 1/5 vs 1/4). Yes small sample and on average 4/4 is only 50-50 on those numbers but i would have expected the allocation of those losses to be significantly different
where a = skill with higher value, b = skill with lower value
and the order of the skill does not matter. Meaning, if it's SEC and SCI, and your crew is 500 SEC 800 SCI, it's still (800 + (0.25 * 500)) regardless if it's SEC and SCI or SCI and SEC.
Yes, this is how the displayed success formula works. The question is: is this right? Is it (perhaps) subtly different? Clearly, different people are having different "luck". Those who feel like they are failing significantly more often ought to post how they are populating thosr shuttles (specifically, which crews in which slots for which missions).
Everyone saying, "it would be nice if DB would..." just stop. They have simply shown that they won't. Lamenting this fact is pretty useless. The best way to get them to fix things is to provide an alternative model that reflects reality more accurately than the "expected" results they display.
I have a feeling the overall formula is right. I think the DB RNG is either biased, or the worst non-random RNG. Too many RNG elements have been statistically proven to be biased for this not to be the case. It might not even be DB's fault. They may be an unwitting accomplice. (side bar: this would make Apple's decree to publish loot box probabilities moot. DB could accurately list the probabilities but they would never tie up to real outcomes bc of biased RNG)
But between shuttles, gauntlet defender bias, gauntlet med node proliferation, lack of Dabo wheel top row hits, and the list just keeps on going...RNG is definitively biased.
I said this a couple months after the game started. This game is nothing more than a Star Trek-skinned slot machine. There is no actual strategy to the game components (only strategies involved are the physical order of steps performed).
I still play bc I love Star Trek. But I do feel duped into becoming a Vegas slot machine junkie. Oh, look at the Shiney pictures! Insert coin, press button... Wow!
where a = skill with higher value, b = skill with lower value
and the order of the skill does not matter. Meaning, if it's SEC and SCI, and your crew is 500 SEC 800 SCI, it's still (800 + (0.25 * 500)) regardless if it's SEC and SCI or SCI and SEC.
Look at all those parenthesis, very easy for a small typo to slip in and screw up the stats. Mix in RNG making it difficult to prove a problem and you have a recipe for an unadmitted bug sitting there for months. Plus the A/B distinction could be different between display and calculated success.
I have had more failures then I would expect. However, I am sending crew on some shuttles that have only one of the AND skills. But wait, that one was succeeding more often.
Just keep in mind maybe for some reason the success rate calculation is wrong. But, everyone is being effected. True some are lucky but there will always be someone who is having good success.
If the success rate calc. is wrong DB should see that the success rate is not matching the actual success in this event.
I would suggest to DB breakdown the shuttles success rate by 5% increments. (99-95, 94-90, 89-85) And verify that they are averaging there ranges.
Actually maybe DB can breakdown all the shuttle missions. And also try to match crew and boosts. To check average success rate of those shuttles.
There may be a problem. And, this may be the reason for reducing the number of shuttle missions. By reducing the number of missions, DB will increase the total number of players that run a single mission,(since less choices)
every 3h it seems. I always , and i mean ALWAYS fail 1/3, sometimes two, all the time above 92%. Think ill just stop using boosts .... and take my chances with 88-90% channels
This is the first event, i am struggling to keep under 500 thanks to the constant fails....
only failed 4 shuttles the entire event, out of around 80 shuttles total thus far.
For everyone on the fail side of the bellcurve there's one on the success side. As much as you might care about your individual results RNGesus does not care about you. This is simply your event to get squashed. It's a harsh temporal vortex out there.
Sorry I don't but this.
I have had two sets of three missions fail when all were 99%. The odds of that happening once is a million to one. It has happen twice to me and others in my fleet have reported it happening.
I have had multiple high level success missions all fail at a level that suggests something is broken
6hrs to end ,just now threshholding,this is becoming a joke, not a good one
Also notice that not once have we gotten a reply about this issue in any of the threads from DB
As much as i like the idea of this game DB is really starting to make me wonder why im wasting my time and money on this game
I mean come on, not one reply to your players that feel they are having problems, thats just shady and a slap in the face to people that love star trek
Don't forget that the original formula for AND slots was simply (A+B)/2, which still, btw, is used for galaxy event recipes. If that formula is somehow still used server-side while we're looking at the new AND slots calculations client-side, the difference in projected success rates and actual outcome would be tremendous, which is what's being reported here.
I got four shuttles and I'm staffing them with my best crew. The 80 percent I see is either accurate or it's really like 65 percent. But, if I knew that the 80 percent I saw was actually 65 percent, I'm uncertain what I would do differently? Staff them with better crew? I'm staffing them with my best crew already. Use boosts? I'm doing so already.
It's long been documented that there is a disconnect between the display percentage and success data being reported. I tend to think of the percentages as estimates. Sometimes RNG falls short of the estimate, sometimes it exceeds. But, honestly, having the exact percentage of success wouldn't really impact my core strategy. I send out as many shuttles as possible, as often as possible, with the best staff possible, and if I'm going for rank, with boosts.
Each week, I finish between 25 and 1000, which is pretty much the same anyways.
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
If you're looking for transparency, well. As pointed out by several others is other posts on the same issue, DB is uninterested in providing the transparency you seek.
I got four shuttles and I'm staffing them with my best crew. The 80 percent I see is either accurate or it's really like 65 percent. But, if I knew that the 80 percent I saw was actually 65 percent, I'm uncertain what I would do differently? Staff them with better crew? I'm staffing them with my best crew already.
It's long been documented that there is a disconnect between the display percentage and success data being reported. I tend to think of the percentages as estimates. Sometimes RNG falls short of the estimate, sometimes it exceeds. But, honestly, having the exact percentage of success wouldn't really impact my core strategy. I send out as many shuttles as possible, as often as possible, with the best staff possible.
Each week I fall between 25 and 1000, which is pretty much the same anyways.
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
I suppose what I'm getting at is that the "best" crew is "who provides the highest probability of success".
As provided earlier, the "published" "AND" formula for skills A/B is:
(Higher of A/B) + (Lower of A/B)/4
This is what is used to display the front end calculation value and has been verified. However, let's assume they were using the OLD "AND" formula when computing actual shuttle success (i.e., it's never visible to the user):
(A+B)/2
If that was the case, the "best" crew as identified in the list of crew wouldn't actually be the best because there's a disconnect between those two algorithms.
Now, I don't think that is the actual formula being used. I have some suspicions that I'd rather have some data to back it up, but I'm, admittedly lazy and don't want to do my own statistics. Like I said earlier, I'd be interested in seeing how those who feel like they are experiencing a large number of failures are slotting their shuttles.
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
I send out my shuttles with the best possible crew, however if I am getting 95% chance or above I am more likely to drop a time boost to get an extra shuttle run in.
I have had a three man shuttle mission which was 99% chance of success with three event crew (so three crew with triple bonus) fail on me.
This is not just a case of not using the best crew
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
I send out my shuttles with the best possible crew, however if I am getting 95% chance or above I am more likely to drop a time boost to get an extra shuttle run in.
I have had a three man shuttle mission which was 99% chance of success with three event crew (so three crew with triple bonus) fail on me.
This is not just a case of not using the best crew
If the percentage said 65 percent what would you do differently?
I got four shuttles and I'm staffing them with my best crew. The 80 percent I see is either accurate or it's really like 65 percent. But, if I knew that the 80 percent I saw was actually 65 percent, I'm uncertain what I would do differently? Staff them with better crew? I'm staffing them with my best crew already.
It's long been documented that there is a disconnect between the display percentage and success data being reported. I tend to think of the percentages as estimates. Sometimes RNG falls short of the estimate, sometimes it exceeds. But, honestly, having the exact percentage of success wouldn't really impact my core strategy. I send out as many shuttles as possible, as often as possible, with the best staff possible.
Each week I fall between 25 and 1000, which is pretty much the same anyways.
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
Now, I don't think that is the actual formula being used. I have some suspicions that I'd rather have some data to back it up, but I'm, admittedly lazy and don't want to do my own statistics. Like I said earlier, I'd be interested in seeing how those who feel like they are experiencing a large number of failures are slotting their shuttles.
Why is it harder to pass 2250 Vp shuttles than 4000 Vp shuttles? Took 48hrs to hit 4K Vp shuttles due to constant fails at 2250 Vp.
Congratulations to the tech team for managing to turn the only enjoyable event into a grind if it's designed to squeeze more spending it's achieved the complete opposite from my perspective
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
I send out my shuttles with the best possible crew, however if I am getting 95% chance or above I am more likely to drop a time boost to get an extra shuttle run in.
I have had a three man shuttle mission which was 99% chance of success with three event crew (so three crew with triple bonus) fail on me.
This is not just a case of not using the best crew
If the percentage said 65 percent what would you do differently?
I would have added a stat boost to try and get it up some.
On other missions where I have got to the high 90s with only two chars and have used lower chars for the other two spaces I would have balanced my chars differently (if you have a high 90s chance of success throwing another strong char on is going to add little and they would be better suited to a different mission)
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
I send out my shuttles with the best possible crew, however if I am getting 95% chance or above I am more likely to drop a time boost to get an extra shuttle run in.
I have had a three man shuttle mission which was 99% chance of success with three event crew (so three crew with triple bonus) fail on me.
This is not just a case of not using the best crew
If the percentage said 65 percent what would you do differently?
I would have added a stat boost to try and get it up some.
On other missions where I have got to the high 90s with only two chars and have used lower chars for the other two spaces I would have balanced my chars differently (if you have a high 90s chance of success throwing another strong char on is going to add little and they would be better suited to a different mission)
I can see this.
What is your rank/VP of the shuttles you are sending out?
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
I send out my shuttles with the best possible crew, however if I am getting 95% chance or above I am more likely to drop a time boost to get an extra shuttle run in.
I have had a three man shuttle mission which was 99% chance of success with three event crew (so three crew with triple bonus) fail on me.
This is not just a case of not using the best crew
If the percentage said 65 percent what would you do differently?
There are actually multiple considerations that might make you do something differently (and things that I have tried).
For example, the simplest would be that the displayed % is leading you to think that you have a better chance on one mission vs another. In the last several events I have run into the case of a 90% shuttle failing 2-3 times in a row or 3-4 times out of 5-6 attempts. I have made the decision to switch to a different mission even though that mission had a displayed % in the 80-90% range. Miraculously, the new mission has a success rate close to expectations.
Another example would be whether non-bonus crew would actually wind up being better if in certain slots. I'll be honest that without having any idea how far off the displayed % really are, I have not been tempted to try this. It may seem logical in cases where a non bonus crew satisfies the AND seat where a bonus crew doesn't.
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
I send out my shuttles with the best possible crew, however if I am getting 95% chance or above I am more likely to drop a time boost to get an extra shuttle run in.
I have had a three man shuttle mission which was 99% chance of success with three event crew (so three crew with triple bonus) fail on me.
This is not just a case of not using the best crew
If the percentage said 65 percent what would you do differently?
I would have added a stat boost to try and get it up some.
On other missions where I have got to the high 90s with only two chars and have used lower chars for the other two spaces I would have balanced my chars differently (if you have a high 90s chance of success throwing another strong char on is going to add little and they would be better suited to a different mission)
I can see this.
What is your rank/VP of the shuttles you are sending out?
I was getting a lot of failures in the 1800 and 2250 rank of missions and I was running all three of my shuttles with crew that was targeting a 95% + success range for each shuttle - in those cases I tend to use boosters to get to the 4000 missions as quickly as I can.
I ended up falling to 1800 twice even though I have a pretty decent crew and my squad leader was sharing an immortal event character.
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
I send out my shuttles with the best possible crew, however if I am getting 95% chance or above I am more likely to drop a time boost to get an extra shuttle run in.
I have had a three man shuttle mission which was 99% chance of success with three event crew (so three crew with triple bonus) fail on me.
This is not just a case of not using the best crew
If the percentage said 65 percent what would you do differently?
I would have added a stat boost to try and get it up some.
On other missions where I have got to the high 90s with only two chars and have used lower chars for the other two spaces I would have balanced my chars differently (if you have a high 90s chance of success throwing another strong char on is going to add little and they would be better suited to a different mission)
I can see this.
What is your rank/VP of the shuttles you are sending out?
I was getting a lot of failures in the 1800 and 2250 rank of missions and I was running all three of my shuttles with crew that was targeting a 95% + success range for each shuttle - in those cases I tend to use boosters to get to the 4000 missions as quickly as I can.
I ended up falling to 1800 twice even though I have a pretty decent crew and my squad leader was sharing an immortal event character.
I see. I was wondering why you were seeing such high percentages.
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
I send out my shuttles with the best possible crew, however if I am getting 95% chance or above I am more likely to drop a time boost to get an extra shuttle run in.
I have had a three man shuttle mission which was 99% chance of success with three event crew (so three crew with triple bonus) fail on me.
This is not just a case of not using the best crew
If the percentage said 65 percent what would you do differently?
There are actually multiple considerations that might make you do something differently (and things that I have tried).
For example, the simplest would be that the displayed % is leading you to think that you have a better chance on one mission vs another. In the last several events I have run into the case of a 90% shuttle failing 2-3 times in a row or 3-4 times out of 5-6 attempts. I have made the decision to switch to a different mission even though that mission had a displayed % in the 80-90% range. Miraculously, the new mission has a success rate close to expectations.
Another example would be whether non-bonus crew would actually wind up being better if in certain slots. I'll be honest that without having any idea how far off the displayed % really are, I have not been tempted to try this. It may seem logical in cases where a non bonus crew satisfies the AND seat where a bonus crew doesn't.
I have noticed the latter, as I alternated between the various Burnhams & Marla McGivers for the ENG+DIP slot on one shuttle. Similarly, Holonovel Doctor succeeded more in a MED+SCI slot than 4* Saru or Stamets.
"In the short run, the game defines the players. But in the long run, it's us players who define the game." — Nicky Case, The Evolution of Trust
I was getting a lot of failures in the 1800 and 2250 rank of missions and I was running all three of my shuttles with crew that was targeting a 95% + success range for each shuttle - in those cases I tend to use boosters to get to the 4000 missions as quickly as I can.
I ended up falling to 1800 twice even though I have a pretty decent crew and my squad leader was sharing an immortal event character.
I see. I was wondering why you were seeing such high percentages.
When I hit the 4000 rank I am still able to get most of my shuttles out in the 90%+ range but will often need a booster on them to do that
Last batch of 4 just came back, as expected 3/4 again. Sending out the maximum number of shuttles throughout the event with an average chance of success over 90% I went 4/4 exactly 4 times.
I'm trying to figure out and I wonder, for a 3 crew shuttle mission, anyone guess how many total points is needed for max? Could it be 11000 total. Higher or lower?
Last batch of 4 just came back, as expected 3/4 again. Sending out the maximum number of shuttles throughout the event with an average chance of success over 90% I went 4/4 exactly 4 times.
I finished with two shuttles failing out of three - one of the ones that failed was the one with my top event crew on, the one that had the highest chance of success.
I just failed both of my last shuttles, which were over 90% with a 5* speed boost, and now I am going to barely miss the top-250 (and the 400,000 credit achievement)! So frustrating!
EDIT: with less than a minute to go, I am in 255, less than 1,000 points out of the top-250! *hugs*
Comments
It really doesnt still laugh ever time i see it lol
(Mbannar goes to the shed for his whetstone and pickfork)
Pitchforks Creed:
This is my pitchfork. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
My pitchfork is my best friend. It is my life. I must master it as much as i must master my life.
Without me, my pitchfork is useless. Without my pitchfork, i am useless, i must stab my pitch fork true. I must stab straigther then my enemy who is trying to kill my shuttles. I must stab them before they stab me. (Edit part out here lol)
I will keep my pitch fork clean and ready, even as i am clean and ready. We will become part of each other.
Before god, I swear this creed. My pitchfork and myself are the defenders of my forum
We are the masters of our enemy. We are the saviors of my life
So be it, until there is no enemy, but peace. Amen
(Had to leave a section out couldnt get to work right lol)
Well said.
I have a feeling the overall formula is right. I think the DB RNG is either biased, or the worst non-random RNG. Too many RNG elements have been statistically proven to be biased for this not to be the case. It might not even be DB's fault. They may be an unwitting accomplice. (side bar: this would make Apple's decree to publish loot box probabilities moot. DB could accurately list the probabilities but they would never tie up to real outcomes bc of biased RNG)
But between shuttles, gauntlet defender bias, gauntlet med node proliferation, lack of Dabo wheel top row hits, and the list just keeps on going...RNG is definitively biased.
I said this a couple months after the game started. This game is nothing more than a Star Trek-skinned slot machine. There is no actual strategy to the game components (only strategies involved are the physical order of steps performed).
I still play bc I love Star Trek. But I do feel duped into becoming a Vegas slot machine junkie. Oh, look at the Shiney pictures! Insert coin, press button... Wow!
Look at all those parenthesis, very easy for a small typo to slip in and screw up the stats. Mix in RNG making it difficult to prove a problem and you have a recipe for an unadmitted bug sitting there for months. Plus the A/B distinction could be different between display and calculated success.
All fails are permitted.
Just keep in mind maybe for some reason the success rate calculation is wrong. But, everyone is being effected. True some are lucky but there will always be someone who is having good success.
If the success rate calc. is wrong DB should see that the success rate is not matching the actual success in this event.
I would suggest to DB breakdown the shuttles success rate by 5% increments. (99-95, 94-90, 89-85) And verify that they are averaging there ranges.
Actually maybe DB can breakdown all the shuttle missions. And also try to match crew and boosts. To check average success rate of those shuttles.
There may be a problem. And, this may be the reason for reducing the number of shuttle missions. By reducing the number of missions, DB will increase the total number of players that run a single mission,(since less choices)
Sorry I don't but this.
I have had two sets of three missions fail when all were 99%. The odds of that happening once is a million to one. It has happen twice to me and others in my fleet have reported it happening.
I have had multiple high level success missions all fail at a level that suggests something is broken
Also notice that not once have we gotten a reply about this issue in any of the threads from DB
As much as i like the idea of this game DB is really starting to make me wonder why im wasting my time and money on this game
I mean come on, not one reply to your players that feel they are having problems, thats just shady and a slap in the face to people that love star trek
For shame
What would janeway say?
It's long been documented that there is a disconnect between the display percentage and success data being reported. I tend to think of the percentages as estimates. Sometimes RNG falls short of the estimate, sometimes it exceeds. But, honestly, having the exact percentage of success wouldn't really impact my core strategy. I send out as many shuttles as possible, as often as possible, with the best staff possible, and if I'm going for rank, with boosts.
Each week, I finish between 25 and 1000, which is pretty much the same anyways.
If you're choosing not to send the best crew you have (say you're using them on a Voyage - which in my opinion is a terrible idea if you're trying to be competitive in an event), then you open yourself up to increased odds of failure.
If you're looking for transparency, well. As pointed out by several others is other posts on the same issue, DB is uninterested in providing the transparency you seek.
Join the eXo|plosion today!
I suppose what I'm getting at is that the "best" crew is "who provides the highest probability of success".
As provided earlier, the "published" "AND" formula for skills A/B is:
This is what is used to display the front end calculation value and has been verified. However, let's assume they were using the OLD "AND" formula when computing actual shuttle success (i.e., it's never visible to the user):
If that was the case, the "best" crew as identified in the list of crew wouldn't actually be the best because there's a disconnect between those two algorithms.
Now, I don't think that is the actual formula being used. I have some suspicions that I'd rather have some data to back it up, but I'm, admittedly lazy and don't want to do my own statistics. Like I said earlier, I'd be interested in seeing how those who feel like they are experiencing a large number of failures are slotting their shuttles.
I send out my shuttles with the best possible crew, however if I am getting 95% chance or above I am more likely to drop a time boost to get an extra shuttle run in.
I have had a three man shuttle mission which was 99% chance of success with three event crew (so three crew with triple bonus) fail on me.
This is not just a case of not using the best crew
If the percentage said 65 percent what would you do differently?
Join the eXo|plosion today!
I'm with ya
Join the eXo|plosion today!
Congratulations to the tech team for managing to turn the only enjoyable event into a grind if it's designed to squeeze more spending it's achieved the complete opposite from my perspective
I would have added a stat boost to try and get it up some.
On other missions where I have got to the high 90s with only two chars and have used lower chars for the other two spaces I would have balanced my chars differently (if you have a high 90s chance of success throwing another strong char on is going to add little and they would be better suited to a different mission)
I can see this.
What is your rank/VP of the shuttles you are sending out?
Join the eXo|plosion today!
There are actually multiple considerations that might make you do something differently (and things that I have tried).
For example, the simplest would be that the displayed % is leading you to think that you have a better chance on one mission vs another. In the last several events I have run into the case of a 90% shuttle failing 2-3 times in a row or 3-4 times out of 5-6 attempts. I have made the decision to switch to a different mission even though that mission had a displayed % in the 80-90% range. Miraculously, the new mission has a success rate close to expectations.
Another example would be whether non-bonus crew would actually wind up being better if in certain slots. I'll be honest that without having any idea how far off the displayed % really are, I have not been tempted to try this. It may seem logical in cases where a non bonus crew satisfies the AND seat where a bonus crew doesn't.
Join the eXo|plosion today!
I was getting a lot of failures in the 1800 and 2250 rank of missions and I was running all three of my shuttles with crew that was targeting a 95% + success range for each shuttle - in those cases I tend to use boosters to get to the 4000 missions as quickly as I can.
I ended up falling to 1800 twice even though I have a pretty decent crew and my squad leader was sharing an immortal event character.
I see. I was wondering why you were seeing such high percentages.
Join the eXo|plosion today!
I have noticed the latter, as I alternated between the various Burnhams & Marla McGivers for the ENG+DIP slot on one shuttle. Similarly, Holonovel Doctor succeeded more in a MED+SCI slot than 4* Saru or Stamets.
When I hit the 4000 rank I am still able to get most of my shuttles out in the 90%+ range but will often need a booster on them to do that
I finished with two shuttles failing out of three - one of the ones that failed was the one with my top event crew on, the one that had the highest chance of success.
It is a total joke!
EDIT: with less than a minute to go, I am in 255, less than 1,000 points out of the top-250! *hugs*