I would love to get some ideas on max points for a 3 seat event shuttle. Is it 11000? Using the formula of highest skill points plus 25 percent of secondary skill (times event bonus) I can get close to shown percentage in one mission but way off on the other one.
I dont think anyone fully tracked this event (but if so the additional data would be welcomed in there). Personally I've been playing around with how displayed percentages are way off from actual so I am hoping to get confirmation on total shuttle points for a 3 seater.
I would love to get some ideas on max points for a 3 seat event shuttle. Is it 11000? Using the formula of highest skill points plus 25 percent of secondary skill (times event bonus) I can get close to shown percentage in one mission but way off on the other one.
It’s not completely 100% additive... I did some testing before where a crew was the first on a shuttle and would be like 40%. Another guy would be like 45%. Together they should be 85% but the addition of a second crew has less than full impact. That is how I came to the conclusion it was better to send (The now non-existent two seat shuttles) instead... it also seems non linear so that the addition of the same crew on the third seat is less than the second.
Yeah there is a mysterious auto pilot bonus. Ive played around with it being 20%. Meaning you have a 20% chance of success no matter what you send off. I havent been able to figure that one in yet. Mainly I am trying to get an idea of why one shuttle may say 95% but the points dont support that level and its really 70% on the server side.
Most people in my fleet has the same complaint.with all the shuttles going out with 80% or 90% + failures should be infrequent. If those stats were true we all beat the odds to have 4 failures in a row with 90%+ success. Their numbers are wrong, plain and simple.
DB has no concept of chance odds
we had crew with 3 shuttles of 0%, succeed.
ut like god little monkeys that they are, the DB responders say its normal.
i would love to see their algorithms for how they get their % chance ratios,
not just for shuttles but for gauntlet also their math is wack.
DB needs to fire the Ferrengi and higher more Engineers, Rom doesn't count. [FSC] Peace Keepers
Gryphon [****] Adm
As a member of Crazy Jane's fleet, our Admiral Ruffrider just won the event. He reported a sequence where a 97% shuttle failed eight times in a row. While I acknowledge that this is statistically possible, the odds of winning the powerball are significantly better than failing a 97% shot eight times in a row.
DB support indicates that "using the entire player base as a sample size for this phenomenon, the results do in fact balance out to be in line with the expected results".
Publish the data please. We may find that the entire data set shows what you claim, but there may be evidence of some sort of wi flag as well - where some people are more lucky than others.
At least consider doing an audit of the entire faction event stack from server to client and back to make sure that things are in fact working correctly. It may be the server code is working as intended but the client gets the displayed percentage of success wrong.
I can only ask you to listen to your players and take this seriously.
I would love to get some ideas on max points for a 3 seat event shuttle. Is it 11000? Using the formula of highest skill points plus 25 percent of secondary skill (times event bonus) I can get close to shown percentage in one mission but way off on the other one.
What formula are you using? I just tried to input your data at 4000vp and for the mission "ideas of peace" I get 92.68% , for the mission "den of resistance" I get 99.06%.
I have all data for this event (and a lot of others). I usually complain about having actual success rate 5-10% lower than displayed rate. For this event I saw something really odd with the missions where I used the shared crew.
I did some really basics statistics only for the 4000vp missions, skipping the kickstart and the climb to 4000vp.
statistics for 4k shuttles
24 missions with shared crew (5* away team saru FFFE, thank you -Z- and congratulations again on First to Max) with 95.33% display rate and 58.33% actual rate, in particular:
"Maquis - den of resistance", 6 runs with 95.67% display rate and 66.67% actual rate, but the dataset is too little to point anything with this mission, even though in this thread the same mission had "bizarre" behavior with the same shared crew as well.
18 runs of "Augments - it takes one" with 95.44% display rate and 55.56% actual rate, failing 10
If I change the bonus for the shared crew from x3 to x0 the display rate I calculate is 59.57%, much more consistent with the actual rate I had with this mission. Coincidence?
It was also very bizarre to find out that the missions without shared crew had 91.04% display rate and 91.67% actual rate! Never seen such consistency.
Overall all 4000vp missions had 92.11% display rate and 83.33% actual rate (still the -10% I'm used to)
Usually when I fail in an odd way the same mission 2-3 times close one to another is enough to ban that mission and go find another suitable mission. I was safe with ranking so I decided to keep trying to see a different result with "Augments - it takes one".
here's the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YwbYB7LgFfgzy6bpaOCt8pUS152H89NdT7lTolt6Eno/edit?usp=sharing
I didn't keep track of which skill boosts I used. First column of displayed rate is pre-boost, the second one is post boost. the crew stats are for crew FFFE, except shran, starbase bonus +7%.
shared Away team Saru is under the name "s.saru"
Of less importance here, to clarify if anyone is wondering the strange coefficients, 2250vp missions have difficulty level 2600 and 2750vp missions have difficulty level 3000.
I calculate the error between the displayed rate and mine, it usually differs by less than 1% due to usually a lot of approximations involved in many stages.
not pertinent to the success rate but indicator that funny things happen here and there, at 2750vp for "maquis - ideas of peace" drunk tyler was giving x3bonus, I don't know if he was high on any other mission.
This is some great work. I've been updated that I have the crew points and bonuses all right. Mine starts to mess up when I total all 3 crew vs taking the average of the crew. I'll play around later and dig through what I've learned and the great info you provided. Sounds like the crew share and event crew had issues getting the server to recognize the percentages.
Mmm. It is most likely to do with how event bonuses are calculated. No-one seems to have the same problem with standard shuttles (well, occasionally after an event the winning faction can throw some weird results, but I haven't seen that this time around). I'm not sure it's entirely the event crew, because it used to happen to me before I became part of a decent fleet and I had hardly seen a shared crew before then.
Mmm. It is most likely to do with how event bonuses are calculated. No-one seems to have the same problem with standard shuttles (well, occasionally after an event the winning faction can throw some weird results, but I haven't seen that this time around). I'm not sure it's entirely the event crew, because it used to happen to me before I became part of a decent fleet and I had hardly seen a shared crew before then.
Standard shuttles have the same variations. I've been tracking my standard, non-event shuttles for a long while -- up to 4,541 tracked. In the batch of Maquis shuttles I sent yesterday, I went 3/4, 4/4, & 1/4. They were all between 75 - 85 percent.
the question people should be asking is ... what if the formula you've been using is NOT correct? what if that is not the formula DB actually uses, vs what they show you in the client.
the question people should be asking is ... what if the formula you've been using is NOT correct? what if that is not the formula DB actually uses, vs what they show you in the client.
It's a powerful what-if that really only can be proven right or wrong by, well, DB. And then you'd need to trust said answer.
It's times like this that I really miss Nod. He would have checked in hear and looked into the data. No one else has shown that they really care since he left.
the question people should be asking is ... what if the formula you've been using is NOT correct? what if that is not the formula DB actually uses, vs what they show you in the client.
It's a powerful what-if that really only can be proven right or wrong by, well, DB. And then you'd need to trust said answer.
I know it's rhetoric, so I'll pay you back with the usual pedantic answer.
We already know that display rate is different from the actual rate. We already proved time and time again that the extreme case of a 0% shuttle can come back successful, indicating that on the server side the original formula is still in place.
We need to work the math for every other case, if that is what it takes, but we need data, without the emotion chip, just the cold rational positronic brain being able to collect and process all numbers we can gather...
the question people should be asking is ... what if the formula you've been using is NOT correct? what if that is not the formula DB actually uses, vs what they show you in the client.
It's a powerful what-if that really only can be proven right or wrong by, well, DB. And then you'd need to trust said answer.
Yes, DB would need to comment to be 100% certainty, but if we were to create a model that better described shuttle performance than the displayed results, then it would at least be useful.
That's why I asked in my post earlier, specifically, which characters were getting put on which slots in specific shuttles. Which are performing as expected? Better? Worse?
If you notice commonalities on which missions are deviating from expectations, then you might be able to form such a formula/model.
In follow-up to my previous question about data collection, would anyone be interested in helping collect some long-term data on shuttle rates vs successes? I could set up a form, a la the Voyages one, and start doing percent-by-percent collection, as well as compare normal vs. event.
In follow-up to my previous question about data collection, would anyone be interested in helping collect some long-term data on shuttle rates vs successes? I could set up a form, a la the Voyages one, and start doing percent-by-percent collection, as well as compare normal vs. event.
In follow-up to my previous question about data collection, would anyone be interested in helping collect some long-term data on shuttle rates vs successes? I could set up a form, a la the Voyages one, and start doing percent-by-percent collection, as well as compare normal vs. event.
Following up on Cap Reynolds' post about his experiences, it seems possible (or even likely) that either Saru's calculations were wrong for this event, or something was off about the crew sharing. I confirmed with Ruffrider that he only experienced the 8 failures in a row after switching the lead over to another squad member to help boost her in the top ten. If he was only getting ~58% successes, then losing eight in a row isn't unheard of at all. The problem is expecting 97% to succeed...
the question people should be asking is ... what if the formula you've been using is NOT correct? what if that is not the formula DB actually uses, vs what they show you in the client.
It's a powerful what-if that really only can be proven right or wrong by, well, DB. And then you'd need to trust said answer.
Yes, DB would need to comment to be 100% certainty, but if we were to create a model that better described shuttle performance than the displayed results, then it would at least be useful.
That's why I asked in my post earlier, specifically, which characters were getting put on which slots in specific shuttles. Which are performing as expected? Better? Worse?
If you notice commonalities on which missions are deviating from expectations, then you might be able to form such a formula/model.
Good luck drawing that up. At the moment there's no consistency even as far as event and non-event shuttles are affected by applied boosts. Event shuttles appear to accept either skill boost of an OR slot, while regular shuttles require the crew skill to match the boost skill. Of course, that's not true for every OR slot of every regular mission. A few here and there behave just like event shuttle's.
As if RNG wasn't enough to infuriate the players, DB added an extra layer of flavor called human error, and sprinkled it all over the code. Even if the new AND slot calculations server-side match what we see client-side, skill boosts applied to those calculations are probably way off.
And incorrectly displayed durations and success rates on pre-opened event missions after 2 years indicates they either don't care for any kind of accuracy, or, and it's a more likely scenario, they got rid of the original employees that coded the shuttles, and the new staff is simply unable figure out what when how and why. Just like the new artists can't match the original artwork in quality, and even match skin tones! The first 2 Shrans have this unmistakably bright neon blue skin that appears to match the ENT character, but this new Expedition Shran is practically green!
To me it's just been one face Palm after another for a good 6 months now, so none of this is surprising. The only saving grace here is that this affects everyone in the same way, but that's a really sad excuse.
Quick question on another variable that makes almost impossible to do the numbers
Is the number shown in the left hand column on events the number of shuttles ran or the vp points collected?
If vp thats not that many players, but if its shuttles ran thats a ton
If your odds/percentages are based off server wide, then that number is ever changing so no way to track it, becuase you never know how many shuttles have been ran
You would also need to know when it reset if its based off a certain number or a timeframe
So collecting data is useless if you dont know the all variables
Quick question on another variable that makes almost impossible to do the numbers
Is the number shown in the left hand column on events the number of shuttles ran or the vp points collected?
u
If your odds/percentages are based off server wide, then that number is ever changing so no way to track it, becuase you never know how many stuttles have been ran
We are led to believe those counters are point totals for individual factions. It would be difficult, if impossible, to independently verify those numbers
What is being proposed here isn't an accounting of all shuttles across all players. While that would certainly give the best picture of shuttle behavior, it's not really feasible.
Quick question on another variable that makes almost impossible to do the numbers
Is the number shown in the left hand column on events the number of shuttles ran or the vp points collected?
u
If your odds/percentages are based off server wide, then that number is ever changing so no way to track it, becuase you never know how many stuttles have been ran
We are led to believe those counters are point totals for individual factions. It would be difficult, if impossible, to independently verify those numbers
What is being proposed here isn't an accounting of all shuttles across all players. While that would certainly give the best picture of shuttle behavior, it's not really feasible.
Like the visuals of the graphs at the bottom of his 2nd post, would be a great way ,maybe make grapic sheet that players can download and insert numbers into , so you get more of a standard input
Verus just randomly throwing data up on a page as there is no standard, which makes it harder to collect data
Comments
Yes in here:
https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/1713/shuttle-mission-success-chances-during-events-post-your-data-here/p1
Ive done a few but most important is this google link. Over 700 missions had been tracked.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h3wLNzSDOiu-OIIUhP9OlaKPqRH2YKT83BOPHpFxFCg/edit#gid=0
Using only the 373 missions over 80%, you get an average shown percent of 90% and an actual percent of 81.5.
Usually when I track events in detail I will get a 5-10 point difference from shown to actual.
Does that include this event?
It’s not completely 100% additive... I did some testing before where a crew was the first on a shuttle and would be like 40%. Another guy would be like 45%. Together they should be 85% but the addition of a second crew has less than full impact. That is how I came to the conclusion it was better to send (The now non-existent two seat shuttles) instead... it also seems non linear so that the addition of the same crew on the third seat is less than the second.
we had crew with 3 shuttles of 0%, succeed.
ut like god little monkeys that they are, the DB responders say its normal.
i would love to see their algorithms for how they get their % chance ratios,
not just for shuttles but for gauntlet also their math is wack.
[FSC] Peace Keepers
Gryphon [****] Adm
As a member of Crazy Jane's fleet, our Admiral Ruffrider just won the event. He reported a sequence where a 97% shuttle failed eight times in a row. While I acknowledge that this is statistically possible, the odds of winning the powerball are significantly better than failing a 97% shot eight times in a row.
DB support indicates that "using the entire player base as a sample size for this phenomenon, the results do in fact balance out to be in line with the expected results".
Publish the data please. We may find that the entire data set shows what you claim, but there may be evidence of some sort of wi flag as well - where some people are more lucky than others.
At least consider doing an audit of the entire faction event stack from server to client and back to make sure that things are in fact working correctly. It may be the server code is working as intended but the client gets the displayed percentage of success wrong.
I can only ask you to listen to your players and take this seriously.
What formula are you using? I just tried to input your data at 4000vp and for the mission "ideas of peace" I get 92.68% , for the mission "den of resistance" I get 99.06%.
I used this formula: https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/comment/36217/#Comment_36217
I have all data for this event (and a lot of others). I usually complain about having actual success rate 5-10% lower than displayed rate. For this event I saw something really odd with the missions where I used the shared crew.
I did some really basics statistics only for the 4000vp missions, skipping the kickstart and the climb to 4000vp.
statistics for 4k shuttles
24 missions with shared crew (5* away team saru FFFE, thank you -Z- and congratulations again on First to Max) with 95.33% display rate and 58.33% actual rate, in particular:
"Maquis - den of resistance", 6 runs with 95.67% display rate and 66.67% actual rate, but the dataset is too little to point anything with this mission, even though in this thread the same mission had "bizarre" behavior with the same shared crew as well.
18 runs of "Augments - it takes one" with 95.44% display rate and 55.56% actual rate, failing 10
If I change the bonus for the shared crew from x3 to x0 the display rate I calculate is 59.57%, much more consistent with the actual rate I had with this mission. Coincidence?
It was also very bizarre to find out that the missions without shared crew had 91.04% display rate and 91.67% actual rate! Never seen such consistency.
Overall all 4000vp missions had 92.11% display rate and 83.33% actual rate (still the -10% I'm used to)
Usually when I fail in an odd way the same mission 2-3 times close one to another is enough to ban that mission and go find another suitable mission. I was safe with ranking so I decided to keep trying to see a different result with "Augments - it takes one".
here's the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YwbYB7LgFfgzy6bpaOCt8pUS152H89NdT7lTolt6Eno/edit?usp=sharing
I didn't keep track of which skill boosts I used. First column of displayed rate is pre-boost, the second one is post boost. the crew stats are for crew FFFE, except shran, starbase bonus +7%.
shared Away team Saru is under the name "s.saru"
Of less importance here, to clarify if anyone is wondering the strange coefficients, 2250vp missions have difficulty level 2600 and 2750vp missions have difficulty level 3000.
I calculate the error between the displayed rate and mine, it usually differs by less than 1% due to usually a lot of approximations involved in many stages.
not pertinent to the success rate but indicator that funny things happen here and there, at 2750vp for "maquis - ideas of peace" drunk tyler was giving x3bonus, I don't know if he was high on any other mission.
Check out our website to find out more:
https://wiki.tenforwardloungers.com/
Standard shuttles have the same variations. I've been tracking my standard, non-event shuttles for a long while -- up to 4,541 tracked. In the batch of Maquis shuttles I sent yesterday, I went 3/4, 4/4, & 1/4. They were all between 75 - 85 percent.
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It's a powerful what-if that really only can be proven right or wrong by, well, DB. And then you'd need to trust said answer.
I know it's rhetoric, so I'll pay you back with the usual pedantic answer.
We already know that display rate is different from the actual rate. We already proved time and time again that the extreme case of a 0% shuttle can come back successful, indicating that on the server side the original formula is still in place.
We need to work the math for every other case, if that is what it takes, but we need data, without the emotion chip, just the cold rational positronic brain being able to collect and process all numbers we can gather...
the only answer I got from DB, except the usual journey of million of shuttles jamming the space every day, is this from the old forum:
https://forums.disruptorbeam.com/stt/viewthread/67915/P45/#369744
Yes, DB would need to comment to be 100% certainty, but if we were to create a model that better described shuttle performance than the displayed results, then it would at least be useful.
That's why I asked in my post earlier, specifically, which characters were getting put on which slots in specific shuttles. Which are performing as expected? Better? Worse?
If you notice commonalities on which missions are deviating from expectations, then you might be able to form such a formula/model.
If there's interest, I'll set it up.
I'd be willing to contribute.
I'm in.
Good luck drawing that up. At the moment there's no consistency even as far as event and non-event shuttles are affected by applied boosts. Event shuttles appear to accept either skill boost of an OR slot, while regular shuttles require the crew skill to match the boost skill. Of course, that's not true for every OR slot of every regular mission. A few here and there behave just like event shuttle's.
As if RNG wasn't enough to infuriate the players, DB added an extra layer of flavor called human error, and sprinkled it all over the code. Even if the new AND slot calculations server-side match what we see client-side, skill boosts applied to those calculations are probably way off.
And incorrectly displayed durations and success rates on pre-opened event missions after 2 years indicates they either don't care for any kind of accuracy, or, and it's a more likely scenario, they got rid of the original employees that coded the shuttles, and the new staff is simply unable figure out what when how and why. Just like the new artists can't match the original artwork in quality, and even match skin tones! The first 2 Shrans have this unmistakably bright neon blue skin that appears to match the ENT character, but this new Expedition Shran is practically green!
To me it's just been one face Palm after another for a good 6 months now, so none of this is surprising. The only saving grace here is that this affects everyone in the same way, but that's a really sad excuse.
Is the number shown in the left hand column on events the number of shuttles ran or the vp points collected?
If vp thats not that many players, but if its shuttles ran thats a ton
If your odds/percentages are based off server wide, then that number is ever changing so no way to track it, becuase you never know how many shuttles have been ran
You would also need to know when it reset if its based off a certain number or a timeframe
So collecting data is useless if you dont know the all variables
We are led to believe those counters are point totals for individual factions. It would be difficult, if impossible, to independently verify those numbers
What is being proposed here isn't an accounting of all shuttles across all players. While that would certainly give the best picture of shuttle behavior, it's not really feasible.
This would have to be some amalgamation of user-submitted shuttles. The most recent one, to my knowledge, was located here: https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/1713/shuttle-mission-success-chances-during-events-post-your-data-here However, @Hope_F appears to have been banned from the forums, so I suspect that one isn't going to get updated much anymore.
Had a cs send me this, might help you guys be more visual as not everyone is a math guy lol,
https://forums.disruptorbeam.com/stt/viewthread/49660
Like the visuals of the graphs at the bottom of his 2nd post, would be a great way ,maybe make grapic sheet that players can download and insert numbers into , so you get more of a standard input
Verus just randomly throwing data up on a page as there is no standard, which makes it harder to collect data